#dWP-VW.THINKTANK I Q4/2026

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US Jobs Report: Payroll Growth Tops Forecasts With 177,000 Positions Added (02.05.2025)

US job growth was robust in April and the unemployment rate held steady, suggesting uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade policy has yet to have a material impact on hiring plans.

US Jobs Report: Payroll Growth Tops Forecasts With 177,000 Positions Added (02.05.2025)

No Fed Cuts Until September Despite Rising Risks, Economists Say (02.05.2025)

Economists see a darkening outlook for the US economy but are sticking by projections for two interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

No Fed Cuts Until September Despite Rising Risks, Economists Say (02.05.2025)

KEYTOPIC#1.7 - A superpower crunch over Taiwan is coming (01.05.2025)

Folgend werden 3 aktuelle Brennpunkte/Faktoren, welche eine Übernahme von Taiwan durch China begünstigen, dargelegt:

Unter Trump verliert Amerika seine Abschreckungskraft: Die durch Handelskrieg und Protektionismus geschwächte US-Abschreckung macht China mutiger, Taiwan zu versuchen, zu erobern.
Chinas "Grauzonen"-Taktiken: Durch Inspektionen, Quarantänen und Zollkontrollen in taiwanesischen Gewässern versucht China, Taiwans Souveränität zu untergraben und Zweifel an der Bereitschaft und Fähigkeit der USA, im Konflikt zu helfen, zu säen.
Innenpolitische Instabilität in Taiwan: Polarisierung, politische Blockaden und politische Uneinigkeit in Taiwans Regierung verhindern entscheidende Verteidigungsmaßnahmen, was die Insel anfälliger macht Diese Faktoren erhöhen das Risiko eines Konflikts um Taiwan, obwohl ein direkter Krieg auch durch strategische, politische und militärische Überlegungen beeinflusst wird.

KEYTOPIC#1.7 - A superpower crunch over Taiwan is coming (01.05.2025)

French Economy Returns to Growth But Still Faces Trade Hit (30.04.2025)

France’s economy returned to growth at the start of the year but showed little momentum as it headed into a tougher environment marred by global trade tensions.

French Economy Returns to Growth But Still Faces Trade Hit (30.04.2025)

US Economy Contracts for First Time Since 2022 on Imports Surge (30.04.2025)

The US economy contracted at the start of the year for the first time since 2022 on a monumental pre-tariffs import surge and softer consumer spending, a first snapshot of the ripple effects from President Donald Trump’s trade policy.

US Economy Contracts for First Time Since 2022 on Imports Surge (30.04.2025)

Core PCE: Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Stalls While Spending Picks Up (30.04.2025)

US consumer spending jumped in March while a key measure of inflation decelerated, a welcome reprieve before tariffs are expected to broadly drive up prices.

Core PCE: Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Stalls While Spending Picks Up (30.04.2025)

ECB Should Be Cautious on Further Rate Cuts, Stournaras Says (29.04.2025)

The European Central Bank should proceed carefully with additional cuts in borrowing costs due to the uncertain global environment, Governing Council Member Yannis Stournaras said.

ECB Should Be Cautious on Further Rate Cuts, Stournaras Says (29.04.2025)

US Jobless Claims Jumps to Highest Since February After Easter Holiday (01.05.2025)

Applications for US unemployment benefits jumped to the highest level since February during the week that followed Easter.

US Jobless Claims Jumps to Highest Since February After Easter Holiday (01.05.2025)

Options Betting on ECB Rate Cuts By September Rise in Popularity (02.05.2025)

Traders are scooping up wagers tied to the European Central Bank’s interest-rate decision in September, moving on from bets on June when a quarter-point cut is seen as a foregone conclusion.

Options Betting on ECB Rate Cuts By September Rise in Popularity (02.05.2025)

April Jobs Report: Hiring Seen Slowing, With Brunt of Tariff Impact Coming Later (02.05.2025)

US employment growth probably decelerated in April and the jobless rate held steady, illustrating healthy yet moderating labor demand entering a period when trade policy risks chilling the hiring decisions.

April Jobs Report: Hiring Seen Slowing, With Brunt of Tariff Impact Coming Later (02.05.2025)

ECB’s Rehn Sees Downside Risks to March Inflation Forecasts (28.04.2025)

European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said there’s a danger that inflation will dip below the 2% target due to the fallout from US trade levies, reiterating that this would be grounds to further lower interest rates.

ECB’s Rehn Sees Downside Risks to March Inflation Forecasts (28.04.2025)

ECB’s Guindos Warns of Disorderly Market Risk Amid Trade Turmoil (28.04.2024)

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said that volatile financial markets must be watched closely amid the risk of declines spiraling out of control.

ECB’s Guindos Warns of Disorderly Market Risk Amid Trade Turmoil (28.04.2024)

Trump’s China Tariffs to Hit US Economy With Higher Prices, Empty Shelves (28.04.2025)

President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught has roiled Washington and Wall Street for nearly a month. If the trade war persists, the next upheaval will hit much closer to home.

Trump’s China Tariffs to Hit US Economy With Higher Prices, Empty Shelves (28.04.2025)

ECB Rates May Have to Fall Below Neutral on Trade, Muller Says (23.04.2025)

The European Central Bank may have to lower interest rates to levels that stimulate the economy if trade uncertainty proves more damaging for growth, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Muller.

ECB Rates May Have to Fall Below Neutral on Trade, Muller Says (23.04.2025)

ECB’s Knot Says Neutral Is Right Policy Setting as Shocks Unfold (23.04.2025)

European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said he doesn’t see a need to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates as the medium-term impacts of recent economic shocks remain unclear.

ECB’s Knot Says Neutral Is Right Policy Setting as Shocks Unfold (23.04.2025)

Deutsche Sees ‘Major’ Dollar Decline as Investors Dump US Assets (24.04.2025)

Deutsche Bank AG is warning of a structural dollar downtrend in the coming years which will knock the US currency to its weakest level in more than a decade against the euro.

Deutsche Sees ‘Major’ Dollar Decline as Investors Dump US Assets (24.04.2025)

Deutsche Bank AG is warning of a structural dollar downtrend in the coming years which will knock the US currency to its weakest level in more than a decade against the euro.

Deutsche Sees ‘Major’ Dollar Decline as Investors Dump US Assets (24.04.2025)

US Consumer Sentiment Slides While Inflation Expectations Jump (25.04.2025)

US consumer sentiment fell to one of the lowest readings on record and long-term inflation expectations climbed to the highest since 1991 on fears of the economic fallout from tariffs.

US Consumer Sentiment Slides While Inflation Expectations Jump (25.04.2025)

ECB’s Holzmann Sees Disinflationary Impact From Trump Tariffs (25.04.2025)

European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said the fallout from the US tariff announcements will probably weigh on consumer prices in the euro zone rather than create a new bout of inflation.

ECB’s Holzmann Sees Disinflationary Impact From Trump Tariffs (25.04.2025)

Fed’s Powell Walks Tightrope of Being Late But Not ‘Mr. Too Late’ (25.04.2025)

Jerome Powell’s determination to ensure any jump in prices stemming from Donald Trump’s tariffs don’t spread through the economy has earned him the moniker “Mr. Too Late” from the president. For the Federal Reserve chair, that’s better than being Mr. Wrong.

Fed’s Powell Walks Tightrope of Being Late But Not ‘Mr. Too Late’ (25.04.2025)

IMF Warns Europe Not to Block ‘Inevitable Structural Change’ (25.04.2025)

The International Monetary Fund warned Europe not to obstruct change as it attempts to alleviate the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariff torrent.

IMF Warns Europe Not to Block ‘Inevitable Structural Change’ (25.04.2025)

The International Monetary Fund warned Europe not to obstruct change as it attempts to alleviate the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariff torrent.

IMF Warns Europe Not to Block ‘Inevitable Structural Change’ (25.04.2025)

Economists Say Trade War Makes US Recession Almost a Coin Flip (25.04.2025)

Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg now see a 45% of a downturn in the next year, up from 30% in March.

Economists Say Trade War Makes US Recession Almost a Coin Flip (25.04.2025)

ECB’s Kazaks Urges Cautious Steps Even as Growth Outlook Worsens (27.04.2025)

The European Central Bank should only lower interest rates into accommodative territory if the growth outlook deteriorates much further, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

ECB’s Kazaks Urges Cautious Steps Even as Growth Outlook Worsens (27.04.2025)

Lagarde Says Tariffs Likely More Disinflationary Than Inflationary (23.04.2025)

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said US tariffs may be more disinflationary than inflationary for Europe even as more time is needed to fully assess the situation.

Lagarde Says Tariffs Likely More Disinflationary Than Inflationary (23.04.2025)

World Leaders From China to EU Hold Climate Meeting Without US (23.04.2025)

China’s Xi Jinping and the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen were among the leaders on a private video call organized by the United Nations.

World Leaders From China to EU Hold Climate Meeting Without US (23.04.2025)

Lagarde betont „extreme“ Datenabhängigkeit in Zinspolitik (23.04.2024)

Strategist Who Called End of US Exceptionalism Sees No Recovery (22.04.2025)

Global investors’ rotation out of American assets will go on for years if President Donald Trump persists with his trade policy, according to a strategist who timed the unwind of US exceptionalism almost perfectly.

Strategist Who Called End of US Exceptionalism Sees No Recovery (22.04.2025)

IMF Slashes Global Growth Forecast, Says Downside Risks Dominate (24.04.2025)

The International Monetary Fund sharply lowered its forecasts for world growth for this year and next, warning the outlook could deteriorate further as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs spark a global trade war.

IMF Slashes Global Growth Forecast, Says Downside Risks Dominate (24.04.2025)