#dWP-VW.THINKTANK I Q4/2026

The euro’s relentless rally stalled on Tuesday as US data failed to support an imminent interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, prompting traders to buy the dollar.

US consumer spending grew in the first quarter at the weakest pace since the onset of the pandemic on a sharp deceleration in outlays for a variety of services.

Inflation inched up in France and Spain but not enough to concern European Central Bank officials who are optimistic that their 2% target will be met sustainably this year.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned European Union leaders that the mounting debts of governments and companies are fueling the risk of a new financial crisis.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will reiterate to lawmakers the central bank is in no rush to lower interest rates as officials wait for more clarity on the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

US stocks rose on Friday as investors returned from the Juneteenth holiday break to evaluate recent comments from a top Federal Reserve official as well as the latest developments in the conflict between Israel and Iran.

The euro is taking on a bigger role in the global currency options market as traders skirt around the dollar given the risks from unpredictable US policy and a global trade war.

The European Central Bank is well placed to tackle “exceptionally high” uncertainty but will closely watch gyrations in commodities markets as tensions in the Middle East flare, President Christine Lagarde said.

Europe risks drifting into stagnation without urgent action to tackle slowing growth, weak investment and rising geopolitical threats, the International Monetary Fund warned.

President Vladimir Putin’s top economic officials openly argued over the state of Russia’s economy during a session at a flagship forum, with one government minister issuing his starkest warning yet that the country may be teetering on the edge of a recession.

There are a lot of unknowns about the outlook for the economy and interest rates, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled at least one thing seems certain: Higher prices are coming.

Applications for US unemployment benefits ticked down last week, stabilizing near the highest levels in eight months.

The euro-zone’s economic prospects face “substantial” dangers that officials are struggling to assess, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta.

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and continued to pencil in two rate cuts in 2025, saying uncertainty over the economic outlook was still high but had diminished.

The threat of inflation falling short of the European Central Bank’s 2% target is contained, Vice President Luis de Guindos told Reuters.

Economists still expect the European Central Bank to lower interest rates one more time this year, even after policymakers signaled they’re in no rush to ease further.

It will take months yet before the Federal Reserve can get a clear idea of how Trump administration policy changes will shape the US economy, making officials unlikely to consider a change to interest rates before September, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

A growing chorus of advisers inside and outside the Trump administration are pushing another name to serve as the next chair of the Federal Reserve: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Inflation was tame in May but President Trump's tariff policy may cause consumer prices to rise noticeably heading into summer, economists said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent refrained from arguing that the tax legislation Republicans are working to finalize in Congress will avoid adding to the debt burden.

The World Bank on Tuesday cut its forecast for global growth this year and warned that the 2020s are on track for the weakest performance for any decade since the first Apollo moon landing because of trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

The World Bank on Tuesday cut its forecast for global growth this year and warned that the 2020s are on track for the weakest performance for any decade since the first Apollo moon landing because of trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

The European Central Bank should wait until at least September to have an in-depth discussion about an interest-rate move, according to Governing Council member Boris Vujcic.

Policymakers need to stay alert to the risk of deflation reappearing.

European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel sees a favorable moment now to strengthen euro’s global role as investors turn to Europe.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said he can’t judge if interest-rate cuts are over for this year and next steps are totally open, according to an interview with Deutschlandfunk.

President Donald Trump urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a full percentage point, intensifying his pressure campaign against Chair Jerome Powell.