#dWP-VW.THINKTANK I Q4/2026

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economic impact of new tariffs is likely to be significantly larger than expected, and the central bank must make sure that doesn’t lead to a growing inflation problem.

Expectations for European Central Bank interest-rate cuts are rising as investors and analysts assessing the fallout from Donald Trump’s tariffs conclude that the outcome for inflation will be more benign while growth will suffer.

US job growth beat forecasts in March and the unemployment rate edged up, pointing to a healthy labor market before the global economy gets hit by widespread tariffs.

US service providers expanded in March at the slowest pace in nine months as orders growth cooled and a measure of employment tumbled to the lowest since 2023.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said interest rates remain well positioned to handle competing risks despite a high degree of uncertainty in the economic outlook amid substantial changes to US policies on trade, immigration and regulation.

US President Donald Trump’s array of tariffs threatens the global economy and calls into question the European Central Bank’s achievements in fighting inflation, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel.

US job openings fell in February while layoffs remained subdued, adding to evidence of a labor market that’s only gradually cooling.

European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said it’s time to talk about joint debt again in the euro area as policymakers see an opportunity to bolster the currency’s role in the global economy.

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said President Donald Trump’s tariffs could raise both inflation and unemployment, creating a big challenge for the central bank.

German inflation slowed more than anticipated in March, nearing the European Central Bank’s 2% target as officials ponder whether to lower interest rates again at their next meeting or pause.

Euro-area inflation eased further toward the European Central Bank’s 2% target as officials weigh whether or not to continue lowering interest rates.

Several European Central Bank officials are still wavering on whether to cut interest rates next month, according to people familiar with the matter, suggesting the meeting remains far more open than investors are betting.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists now forecast both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will cut interest rates three times this year as President Donald Trump’s tariffs weigh on economic growth.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists now forecast both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will cut interest rates three times this year as President Donald Trump’s tariffs weigh on economic growth.

President Christine Lagarde said that the European Central Bank can’t relent on inflation, with the US administration’s trade policy creating uncertainty.

US employers probably tempered their hiring in March, just as consumers grow increasingly cautious and the economic outlook dims on concerns about the fallout from higher tariffs.

As US stock prices tumbled this month, John Sidawi, a fund manager at Federated Hermes, noticed something strange.

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said rapid policy changes by the Trump administration have created “a sense of instability” in the business community, and the associated decline in sentiment could “quiet demand.”

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said it looks “inevitable” that tariffs will boost inflation, at least in the near term, adding it’s likely appropriate to keep interest rates steady for longer.

Porsche AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG will be hit hardest by President Donald Trump’s latest trade salvo, facing a potential €3.4 billion ($3.7 billion) blow from new US tariffs on imported cars.

President Donald Trump’s coming wave of tariffs is poised to be more targeted than the barrage he has occasionally threatened, aides and allies say, a potential relief for markets gripped by anxiety about an all-out tariff war.

German business optimism rose to the highest level since June 2024 as Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz readies hundreds of billions of euros of spending to modernize the economy.

European Central Bank officials are playing for time on what to do at their next meeting, with Governing Council members from Estonia, Slovakia and Croatia highlighting the uncertainty created by global trade tensions.

Risks to euro-zone economic forecasts are more to the downside than the upside, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva.

Business activity in the euro area reached its highest level in seven months as manufacturers recovered more than expected ahead of a massive increase in German spending.

US economic data are diverging wildly, fueling a debate over whether rising anxiety from President Donald Trump’s trade policies will push a moderating economy into a serious downturn.

Two Federal Reserve officials on Friday echoed comments from Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week, downplaying the recent rise in a key measure of long-term inflation expectations but emphasizing the outlook is highly uncertain.

US President Donald Trump has already upended global trade and the postwar international security consensus. Now, he’s throwing central banking into disarray.

US President Donald Trump has already upended global trade and the postwar international security consensus. Now, he’s throwing central banking into disarray.